Angry in the Great White North

Given that the campaigns are going to be going into stasis very soon until the New Year, the Liberals will be desperate to shake the "beer and popcorn" thing, for fear of leaving that sound bite in the minds of the voters and the media for over a week.

It boils down to momentum. When the electioneering stops for Christmas, the momentum built up prior to the break will carry through. Right now, that momentum is in favour of the Conservatives.

Unfortunately, the "lay low" strategy the Liberals have adopted means that besides the handgun ban, they have no new policy platforms to use in the debate.

And even with the handgun ban, Paul Martin is vulnerable on questions of efficacy of such a ban in other countries that have tried it, the legality of it, coordination with the provinces given that Alberta is already opting out and his own Finance Minister Ralph Goodale sad Saskatchewan does not need such a ban, and finally, of course, the cost overrun nightmare of the gun registry.

Instead, Paul Martin will be forced to merely attack the Conservative platform.

Which means the Conservative platform will be the centre of discussion, and that is better than being ignored.

Paul Martin will also have to be careful not to attack the NDP too viciously, if only because part of the Liberal strategy will be to entice NDP supporters to vote for the Liberals.

Paul Martin can attack Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc, of course, but those attacks are essentially wasted in the English language debate, and in the French language debate, well, unless Gilles Duceppe pulls off a mask and reveals himself to be General James Wolfe, the leader of the victorious British forces at the Battle of the Plains of Abraham, there is little that can happen that will alter the numbers in Quebec.

On the other hand, Gilles Duceppe can ignore the Conservatives and the NDP, non-combatants in Quebec, and attack Paul Martin with wild abandon.

Similarly, Stephen Harper and Jack Layton will labour under no such constraints, and can hit the Liberals hard. In particular, Jack Layton has no choice. If he does not define the difference between the Liberals and the NDP starkly enough, NDP supporters will move their vote to the Liberals. Indeed, he has to soft-pedal his criticism of the Conservatives. If the Conservatives are seen as too scary, NDP voters will switch votes.

Stephen Harper is in an enviable position. Jack Layton has to pull his punches. Gilles Duceppe will ignore him. Paul Martin has little to punch with. As for Stephen Harper, he can switch from feel-good statements concerning the party platform with regards to child care money and the sports rebate, and then to sharp attacks centred on any number of issues: "beer and popcorn", Adscam, the Income Trust questions, just to list three.

So Paul Martin can expect three hard-hitting opponents: Stephen Harper because he can, Gilles Duceppe because it's fun, and Jack Layton because he has to. Paul Martin will have his work cut out for him to substantially alter the momentum in this election campaign in this week's debates. And that's going to be important, because when everyone breaks for the Christmas holiday, momentum is going to define the starting point for the final phase of the campaign in January.