Angry in the Great White North

With the chaos in New Orleans, the rioting, the looting, the prison hostage situation, I have to wonder who might be watching these events with clinical interest. From the Walid Phares editorial at townhall.com, from September 13, 2003:

The real and first objective of the Ghazwa (Jihad raid as it was called by [Osama bin Laden]) was to trigger a chain of reactions, both on the popular and political levels. He saw hundred thousand Americans in the streets exploding in anger against their Government as Israelis have done against their cabinets in the 1980s. He hoped Congress would split in two and get paralyzed, campuses would rebel and companies would collapse. He wanted chaos, and a divided nation, scared, and turning onto it self. He believed time was ripe for the fall of the giant.

Bin Laden's attacks on 9/11 killed 3000 people, destroyed two major landmarks, and damaged many others.

In terms of lives lost, 9/11 seems to have been much more expensive than Katrina. In terms of property damage, far less.

And yet the chaos Phares suggests bin Laden was looking for never came.

Katrina, on the other hand, was truly a weapon of mass destruction. Unlike the planes of 9/11, the devastation was spread over a vast area, affecting everyone.

I think, though, there is something else at play. With Katrina, there was a build-up over days. A ratchetting up of stress.

You can't do that with a 9/11 attack. Threaten to use planes, and the planes are grounded, security increased, and fighters scrambled. An attack like that has to be sudden and unexpected, but then there is no time for the fear to sink into your bones.

But you can threaten to detonate a carefully hidden nuclear device well ahead of time. In fact, you want to in order to build up the terror. Threaten that the bomb is in a major city, and the nervousness ramps up across the country. Then 24 hours before the deadline, you name the city, and watch the nationwide nervousness become concentrated into sheer panic.

And we have what we are seeing in New Orleans.

I worry that these lessons are being carefully studied and are going to factor into the strategic thinking of the enemy.