Angry in the Great White North

• Alberta will use the notwithstanding clause, possible joined by PEI, to shield provincial laws that defy C-38 and judicial interpretations of the Charter and restrict provincial marriage licenses to heterosexual couples, assuming a court strikes down such laws [added based on comments]. Gay-rights advocates will make submissions to human rights tribunals and to the courts. In a bizarre move, the Bloc Quebecois will support Alberta against having to implement the bill the Bloc just supported on the grounds that provincial rights trump everything else. Paul Martin and various hot-headed cabinet ministers will issue statements that suggest Albertans are evil, supported by the Toronto-centric media giants. Canada's polarization will continue.
• Within 6 months, the first legal filings aimed at religious institutions will appear. They will be filed by advocates more interested in destroying religion (especially Christian churches) than in enhancing gay rights. Nevertheless, the severe limits of the ability of the federal Liberal government to protect religious institutions will become apparent, as will their utter lack of interest in trying to do so. Various lower courts will rule this way and that. Pressure to review how judges are appointed will build in some areas of the country, while in others, church services will become targets of demonstrations, requiring more court proceedings, and even police protection. The gay community and the public as a whole will be split on whether a gay rights advocate who threw a paint-filled balloon at an altar during a service and was subsequently beaten up by enraged parishioners (call that an auxiliary prediction) got what he deserved. Canada's polarization will continue.
• During the next election, representatives of religious institutions will start to talk politics. This will enrage the Liberals and their allies, who will threaten to eliminate tax exemptions for some, or even all, religious groups. Momentum will build from the religious community to do exactly that, eager to call the government's bluff. Canada's polarization will continue.
• The inability of the Senate to fulfill its role as the body for "sober second thought" by breezing C-38 through will revitalize the Senate reform movement, especially in the West. Alberta will "elect" more senators, who will be pointedly ignored by the Liberal government. Canada's polarization will continue.
• Within two years, the first challenges to other limits on marriage will appear. My guess is it will be the rule against polygamy, brought forward either by fundamentalist Mormons, or less likely, traditional Arab Muslims. The gay community will be split on the issue, but will be united in saying none of this was their fault. The government will fight against it. If it's a Liberal government, the focus will be on a new bill to enshrine this definition of marriage but not that. A referal to the Supreme Court will result in an answer that it's either one exclusive definition, or no exclusions at all, but not some exclusions and not others. If it's a Conservative government, pressure will build to keep to a promise that they'd prefer to avoid, and that is to repeal C-38 altogether. Canada's polarization will continue.
• See a massive surge in gay marriage tourism, especially from the United States. It will be aided by both gay advocacy groups and civil ibertarians like the ACLU, as well as private for-profit companies. Court challenges filed in the US by gay couples seeking to have their marriages recognized will focus American attention, as well as some anger on marriage and other issues, north to Canada. Scams will proliferate, mostly run out of Canada aimed at American homosexuals; though their size will be small compared to other scams, political pressure from advocacy groups and media attention will divert law enforcement resources. Cross-border court cases will start to appear in larger numbers; large class action suits will be next. Both countries will be faced with constitutional issues -- the Canadian tradition of ignoring the constitution when it suits political expediency will clash with the American tradition of careful adherence to the constitution, becoming another point of contention. Canada's polarization from the US will continue.