Angry in the Great White North

From a CSIS commentary from November 2000, considering the potential of problems from 2000 to 2006:

There are indications that at least some elements in the Chinese leadership favour an attack. PLA Generals are participating in Politburo discussions, and there is rumoured to be a five to seven year timetable for reunification.

Uh-oh. Looks like the clock is running out. Dovetails nicely with the Pentagon report, doesn't it.

The plan CSIS figured China would try? According to this paper, a long range attack by missile and air strikes, but no actual invasion. Batter Taiwan until it agrees to unify with the mainland [editor's note: I don't like the word "re-unify" since they've never been unified in the past]. The thinking is if the troops stay in their barracks, the US might hesitate to get involved.

What are the implications for Canada?

Should the state not succeed at containing instability, the consequences will be profound. Canada will have little direct leverage on the situation, but will be affected in a number of ways. Instability would have an important bearing on Canadian trade and investment in the region. The flow of illegal emigration would probably escalate dramatically. If the Chinese leadership did choose to attack Taiwan, Canada would face pressure to support whatever policy its American ally adopts, and this might include military action in response.

But China has ways of applying pressure of its own, via the "United Front" strategy:

United front work is essentially about taking power from a position of weakness. Temporary alliances of convenience with non-Communist entities empowered a fledgling CCP to first establish and then maintain its hold on power in China. Rather than "kicking out in all directions," the Party identified elements of Chinese society it could ally with to destroy the handful of "die-hard" elements who posed the greatest threat to its existence.

In fact, there is a department within the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party dedicated to this strategy:

The United Front Department bases its activities around three central premises. First is the idea that all Chinese are unified by their common heritage. Second is the theory that true enemies of the CCP actually represent only 5 to 10 per cent of society, and other elements – patriots and anti-imperialists – can be rallied to strike out at these "antagonistic contradictions." The final premise relates to Mao Zedong's three-thirds principle, whereby representation in CCP organs should be split between the Party (which would retain a leadership role), non-party progressives, and "intermediate sections who are neither left nor right."

Chinese everywhere form potential members of the "United Front":

Finally, there are the bridges to the overseas Chinese. While this effort is not limited exclusively to corporate leaders, they are certainly a high priority target.

United front work conducted among Chinese populations abroad has pitted the PRC against the Republic of China [Taiwan] in a fight for investment and political support. In reminding its diaspora of their duty to the homeland, China has sometimes asked for more than just money and sympathetic words. Inducing Chinese abroad, by threat or by appeal to patriotism, to conduct economic and technical espionage is also an aim of united front work.

Of course, no warning from a Canadian source would be complete if it were not gutted by a concession to political correctedness:

This does not mean, however, that ethnic Chinese who have settled abroad should be viewed as a "fifth column" for either China or Taiwan. Nor should the united front's attempts to evoke a sense of shared ancestry among the Chinese diaspora be judged as proof of its existence.

Funny, I thought that's exactly what the report was saying.

For Canada, home to a significant ethnic Chinese population, the implications of this paper are clear. China's next major foreign policy goal will be to create the conditions for reunification with Taiwan on its own terms. With this in mind, both the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China are intensifying their efforts to garner the financial, technical, and political support of overseas Chinese around the world. As the divide and rule tactics that characterize united front work will form the basis of this campaign, Canada must exercise vigilance to ensure that the rights and freedoms of Chinese-Canadians are not threatened.

Well, we don't need to be worried, right? I mean Canadians of Chinese heritage understand that this is their country, right?

Well, consider the slogan for Bradley Pacific Enterprises: "A Vision that Goes Beyond the Boundaries":

With a competitive edge over many others in having long-standing associations with both Chinese central government and local municipalities, our dynamic and professional Canadian team with a winning track record will continue to thrive in this ever-changing Chinese and world market, thus seizing new and privileged business opportunities in the years to come. In the twenty-first century, business globalization is the ultimate destiny. With this in mind, our corporate vision goes beyond the boundaries.

One of those boundaries being challenged in the race for the "ultimate destiny" is the boundary between corporate interests and government:

On behalf of Prime Minister Paul Martin, Rex Renkema, acting President of the Liberal Party of Canada in BC today announced that Wendy Yuan has been appointed the Prime Minister's Representative on the Party Executive in BC.

Mrs. Yuan has been active in the Liberal Party of for many years having served on the BC Campaign Committee in the recent election and as the Chinese Media Chair for the Paul Martin Leadership Campaign. She is currently the President and CEO of Bradley Pacific Enterprises.

Prime Minister's representative

CEO of a company with a long-standing association with the Chinese central government

A company that has donated to the Liberal Party ($3,298 in 2003) and to Paul Martin ($5000 to his leadership campaign).

The "United Front"

Any bets on what the Canadian government will do if things go badly over the Formosa Strait if Paul Martin and the Liberals are still in power?