Angry in the Great White North

In the stock market, there is a thing called a "dead cat bounce". When a stock crashes, usually because of scandal or stories of impending bankruptcy, the nosedive to near-zero value is almost always followed by a short term gain in value -- the bounce. This bounce is driven by investors with more money than brains who figure that, on the off chance that the company can weather the storm, start buying the near worthless stock, hoping to make a killing. Of course, purchases drive up stock value, but only temporarily. The cat, well and truly dead, flops unceremoniously to the ground again as the wishful thinking of these investors is seen to be so much fantasy.

Is something like this at work in the latest polls?

With the nosedive of Liberal polling numbers in the last few weeks, voters who were polled this week might have been frightened by the looming shifts in Canadian politics and all that these shifts might entail. Maybe they briefly figured that they could "vote" Liberal in the poll, wishfully thinking that the tide would turn, the Adscam scandal would go away, and everything would look better next week.

Next week, however, Chuck Guite's testimony will be made public, and the election might be seen to be both inevitable and desirable. All the wishful thinking about moneys pouring into child care and the environment and education and whatever other promises the Liberals come up with this week will be recognized as so much hot air, and that this minority government has no hope of making good on any of them, not with the scandal looming over everything. The Liberal Party stock will be seen to have little value (at least without an election win), and support will get squished as the dead cat falls flatly on top of it.

Just a thought.